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Q&A - Ask away! I'll answer Pt. 5

Published on I received some great questions this week! Because another question popped up about a meteorological process influenced by La Nina, which is apart of the broader El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). I recognize the need to go into greater details on ENSO and its influence on our weather. Check back for more posts on this one!

As a reminder, you can submit questions in the comment section of this post, or email me directly through the website contact form. Questions can also be sent through any of my social media platforms. Find me @leahwx11 on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. If I miss your question, keep commenting on futures posts! I want ALL your questions answered.

Question- What’s the difference between weather and climate?

While this question wasn’t specifically asked, I want to address one of the most common misconceptions people have, that weather = climate. Also, I want to address the common misconception that snow events and cold air outbreaks prove that the climate isn't warming.

Global temperature rise does not mean there won't snow or cold air. You must remember that weather and climate are two very different things.

The key differences between weather and climate:

-Weather works in the short term, a few days to a few weeks out.

-Climate works on a longer timeframe, months to years and to decades.

-Weather is your day-to-day atmospheric conditions of pressure, temperature, and precipitation, etc.

-Climate is the daily averages over long periods. We have been keeping detailed climate records since 1850.

Think of it like this, the weather is what you’re wearing, the climate is your wardrobe. So, snow or having cold air outbreaks does not disprove that the climate is warming. As temperatures rise globally, what we will see is more extreme weather conditions. Even as winter temperatures warm on average, we still have extreme winter weather events. In the summer especially we likely will see more of these weather extremes.

Look at the graph below. You can think of our climate as a bell curve, where the curve represents the distribution of temepratures across the globe in any given year. At the peak of the bell curve are the temperatures closest to average. On the fringes of the bell curve are the record and extreme temperatures. On the left side of the curve shows the extreme cold, whereas the right side shows the extreeme heat. Now, as temperatures warm on average across the globe there is a shift in the bell curve. The shift leads to more extreme heat and fewer cold days. Again, this does not mean that we will not experience snow or cold air outbreaks under this new climate. This is merely a big shift in longtime averages.

Question - when will the snow disappear?

I received this message earlier this week. It’s going to take a while for this much snow to melt. Shady areas will hold onto the snow longer than places that receive direct sunlight. Temperatures Friday are in the 30s. Saturday, we warm up to the 40s, and Sunday, we have some scattered showers in the forecast. If you want to enjoy the snow one last time, today is your day. There will be significant snowmelt over the weekend because of the warmer temperatures and the rain moving in on Sunday. Now, looking ahead at next week, we have lots of sunshine in the forecast. So any snow that manages to stick around will likely melt before mid-week. As a heads up, there is going to be lots of mud as this snow melts. You may need to clean off your shoes or wipe your dog's paws before going inside.

Question - What’s the tornado forecast for the area in the spring?

Tough question. We should always prepare for the potential of tornadoes in our area. The Ozarks lie on the outer edges of Tornado Alley, where tornadoes are the most frequent

Here’s what I can tell you. We are under a La Nina pattern, which is just one part of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This next part I copied from a previous Q&A blog post…...

“El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of an oceanic-atmospheric coupling known as El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO. La Nina is the colder counterpart of ENSO. During a La Nina pattern, colder ocean water temperatures are present in the Equatorial Pacific.”

For more on ENSO, click HERE

Now, in the spring, La Nina tends to bring more favorable conditions for strong storms. During La Nina years, warm and humid air is concentrated in the Southern Plains and the south. La Nina conditions also tend to bring a strong north to south temperature gradient that favors stronger storm development. If you look at climatology, the U.S. sees more frequent tornadoes and stronger storms under the La Nina influence. While severe weather and tornadoes can happen at any time, March through late May/early June is when we typically see the most storms, with the peak happening around April. There have been times when under the La Nina pattern, the severe weather is delayed until later in the season. 

Every La Nina year is different, and there are also some hints that we may become ENSO neutral by mid and late spring... Nothing with this is set in stone. However, be prepared. Living in the Ozarks, we should always always prepare for severe weather.

For more on the La Nina influence and spring storms, click HERE

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